[CRYOLIST] Upcoming ACCAP Webinars: 5/16/17 (The exceptionally warm winter of 2015-16 in Alaska: Attribution and anticipation) & 5/19/17 (NWS Alaska Climate Outlook Briefing)

Tina Buxbaum tmbuxbaum at alaska.edu
Wed May 10 17:38:39 PDT 2017

Below is information about two upcoming ACCAP webinars.  Flyers are
attached.  Please share as you see fit.



ACCAP Alaska Climate Webinar
The exceptionally warm winter of 2015-16 in Alaska: Attribution and
John Walsh, University of Alaska Fairbanks
*Tuesday, 16 May 2017 *
10:00-11:00am AKDT

To register for the webinar, please fill out the form available at:
*https://accap.uaf.edu/Warm_Winter <https://accap.uaf.edu/Warm_Winter>*

Alaska experienced record-setting warmth during the 2015-16 cold season
(October-April). Statewide average temperatures exceeded the
period-of-record mean by more than 4°C over the seven-month cold season and
by more than 6°C over the four-month late-winter period, January-April. The
record warmth raises two questions: (1) Why was Alaska so warm during the
2015-16 cold season? (2) At what point in the future might this warmth
become typical if greenhouse warming continues? On the basis of circulation
analogs computed from sea level pressure and 850 hPa geopotential height
fields, the atmospheric circulation explains less than half of the
anomalous warmth. The warming signal forced by greenhouse gases in climate
models accounts for about 1°C of the of the anomalous warmth. A factor that
is consistent with the seasonal and spatial patterns of the warmth is the
anomalous surface state, which 454. The surface anomalies include (1)
above-normal ocean surface temperatures and below-normal sea ice coverage
in the surrounding seas from which air advects into Alaska and (2) the
deficient snowpack over Alaska itself. The location of the maximum of
anomalous warmth over Alaska and the late-winter/early-spring increase of
the anomalous warmth unexplained by the atmospheric circulation implicates
snow cover and its albedo effect, which is supported by observational
measurements in the boreal forest and tundra biomes. Climate model
simulations indicate that warmth of this magnitude will become the norm by
the 2050s if greenhouse gas emissions follow their present scenario.

Available in-person in *IARC/Akasofu 407* on the UAF Campus or online

Registration and more information available at:

May 2017 National Weather Service Alaska Climate Outlook Briefing
Rick Thoman, Climate Science and Services Manager, National Weather Service
*Friday, 19 May 2017 *
12-1:00pm  AKDT

For more information, please go to:

Do you lie awake at nights wondering what the upcoming season will be like?
Want to place bets with friends and family on next month's weather? If so,
good news:

The tools and techniques for making monthly and season scale climate
forecasts are rapidly changing, with the potential to provide useful
forecasts at the month and longer range. Rick Thoman (Climate Science and
Services Manager, Environmental and Scientific Services Division, National
Weather Service Alaska Region) will review recent climate conditions around
Alaska, review forecast tools and finish up with the Climate Prediction
Center's forecast for the upcoming season.

Rick will also present a "*Feature-of-the-Month*" special addition in which
each month he will highlight a topic relevant to the particular month.

Available in-person in *IARC/Akasofu 407* on the UAF Campus or online

Feel free to bring your lunch and join the gathering in-person or join
online to learn more about Alaska climate and weather.

This will be a monthly series generally taking place the third Friday of
each month.

Tina Buxbaum
Program Manager
Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP)
University of Alaska Fairbanks
930 Koyukuk Drive * P.O. Box 757245 * Fairbanks, AK 99775
Phone: 907-474-7812 * Fax: 907-474-5662
Listserv request <http://bit.ly/ONQRT0>
ACCAP on the web <http://www.accap.uaf.edu/>
Facebook:  <http://goog_1876008796/>SNAPandACCAP
Twitter: @SNAPandACCAP <http://twitter.com/#%21/SNAPandACCAP>
Vimeo <http://vimeo.com/snapandaccap> and Flickr
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